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Whether an undervalued currency is an attainable industrial policy for  developing countries’ sustained development has recently invoked many  discussions. This paper studies the case of Taiwan after first determining  the misalignment of Taiwan’s currency by estimating the fundamental  equilibrium real exchange rate. Three sub-periods for Taiwan’s currency  exchange rate misalignment are identified: undervaluation in the periods  1981-1986 and 1998- 2008 and overvaluation during 1987-1997. Second, we use a  vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the Granger causality between  exchange rate misalignment and GDP, by incorporating export and investment  variables. The evidence shows that exchange rate misalignment does Granger  cause GDP and it mainly comes from the third sub-period when the Taiwan  dollar was undervalued. From past experience and the current economic  doldrums of the last resort of global exports - the United States - currency  undervaluation is not a validated strategy upon which emerging markets can  wishfully impinge

Does an undervalued currency merit economic growth?: Evidence from Taiwan