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I reconsider a type of counterfactual argument often used in historical   sciences on a recent widely discussed example of the so-called “rare Earth”   hypothesis in planetary sciences and astrobiology. The argument is based on   the alleged “rarity” of some crucial ingredient for the planetary   habitability, which is, in Earth’s case, provided by contingent evolutionary   development. For instance, the claim that a contingent fact of history which   has created planet Jupiter enables shielding of Earth from most dangerous   impact catastrophes, thus increasing Earth’s habitability, leads often to the   conclusion that such state-of-affairs must be rare in the Galaxy. I argue   that this reasoning is deeply flawed, for several closely related reasons. In   addition, the relevance of the philosophical problem of transworld identity   for this kind of historical reasoning in science is put forward. This   highlights many explanatory problems one faces when using historical   counterfactuals in study of complex, nonlinear dynamical systems - and   bolsters the relevance of philosophy for evaluation of scientific explanatory   claims. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. ON176021 i br. ON   179048

Counterfactuals and unphysical ceteris paribus: An explanatory fallacy