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In the 1930s, the Canada Lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) was extirpated from Isle Royale, a 535-km 2 island located in western Lake Superior, 22 km from the Ontario and Minnesota shorelines. The first half of the 20th century was a time of change on Isle Royale as Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) disappeared, Coyotes ( Canis latrans ) briefly appeared, Moose ( Alces americanus ), Grey Wolves ( Canis lupus ), and Red Foxes ( Vulpes vulpes ) became established, and the habitat was altered by fire, logging, and over-browsing. Although these changes may have contributed to the demise of the Canada Lynx, our results suggest that over-harvest was a primary cause. Assuming a peak carrying capacity of 75 Canada Lynx and harvest rates comparable to those reported from 1890–1935, a population viability analysis indicated that the island population had a 0% chance of surviving 50 years. The analysis also indicated that, even in the absence of harvest, the population had only a 14% chance of persistence for 250 years. However, when 10 Canada Lynx were added to the modeled population every 10th year, the probability of persistence increased to 100%. Our analyses suggest that the island’s Canada Lynx population maintained itself by periodic immigration across an ice bridge; therefore, natural recolonization should be possible. However, the probability of ice-bridge formation has declined from 0.8 in the winter of 1958–59 to 0.1 in 2012–13, likely as a result of climate change. The Isle Royale situation exemplifies another impact of climate change and the possible need to augment populations to mitigate the loss of connectivity.

The Canada Lynx (<em>Lynx canadensis</em>) of Isle Royale: over-harvest, climate change, and the extirpation of an island population