O trade off do crescimento no Brasil nos anos 1990-2000: Análise crítica e alternativas de política monetária

– The paper examines the classical trade off of economic growth in Brazil, expressed in two recurring dilemmas: between growth and price stability and between growth andbalance of payments equilibrium. It presents an analyses of two growth (and adjustment) models recently implemented in the country: themodel of the 1990s, based on an “exchange anchor”; and themodel applied in the first years of the 2000’s, which combines a flexible exchange rate system with a targeting inflation model for monetary policy and a targeting primary surplusmodel for fiscal policy. Based on a simplemacroeconomicmodel for the Brazilian economy, it is argued that, besides to carry a recessive bias, this recent model has limited efficacy as a “solution” for the trade off mentioned. Thus, an alternative strategy is proposed, in which: a) the inflation targeting model is replaced for another one, similar to the “Taylor’s rule”, in which both inflation and real output are considered in the interest rate-function of Central Bank; b) interest rate policy no longer is the unique tool for price stabilization – it shares this task with income policies; c) flexible exchange rate system is combined with policies to control capital flows, especially the “inward transations”, aiming at avoiding the “overborrowing syndrome” of the optimistic phases, reducing, in a structural manner, the exchange rate volatility. Key-words –Economic growth. Trade off.Monetary policy. Balance of payments.