La alianza virtual. Razones del cambio en las elecciones presidenciales en el estado de México, 1999

The paper takes up again a hypothesis previously presented, and the way it was refuted by the facts on July 2nd, 2000, when the federal presidential elections took place. In that previous paper it was stated that the division of the electoral offer in three choices in the governor elections in Mexico state in 1999 favored the triumph of the Institutional Revolutionary Party as it fragmented the opposition vote and allowed this party to rest on its hard vote in order to win the elections. As a consequence of the new electoral scenario, this paper presents a complementary hypothesis to the one that suggests that in spite of the failure in articulating a big opposition alliance, this was actually articulated by the electorate. From a spatial analysis of the electorate the aim is observing if a transference of votes from the opposition to the option that was believed capable of defeating the ruling party actually took place.