Poverty Dynamics and Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence from Smallholders in Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

This study is primarily intended to examine the dynamics and determinants of rural household poverty and vulnerability in Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. The data for this research is mainly based on the Ethiopian Household Survey (ERHS). Results from disaggregation of the poor indicate that ultra poverty is predominant in the area. Similarly, using a three steps feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) we found that many of the households in the region are vulnerable to poverty. However, the trend has been found to vary across villages for both poverty and vulnerability measures. Besides, poverty decomposition of sample households showed that chronic poverty is dominant while transient poverty is secondary. An implication of this is that programs targeting on poverty should primarily focus on factors causing persistence deprivation without undermining risk factors that drag households in to poverty. Finally, some of the important determining factors of observed poverty appear to impact on vulnerability to poverty differently. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing poverty should critically consider factors that make households vulnerable to poverty.