Understanding strikes in CES estimates

Employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey are among the first current economic indicators released by the federal government each month.1 The roots of the CES survey go back a century and began with the publication of employment data for four manufacturing industries in 1915. Since then, the survey has grown to cover over 900 industries and include approximately 52,000 employment, hours, and earnings data series. The survey is designed to capture many influences on employment, including cyclical and trend growth, changing seasonal patterns, weather, and strikes. Throughout the history of the CES program, strikes have affected employment estimates, sometimes significantly. For example, two of the largest strikes in CES history caused large changes in wired telecommunications employment in August 2000 and in August 2011.2 (See figure 1.) To accurately interpret employment in CES estimates, users of the data should understand how CES accounts for strikes. Users also should understand why CES cannot precisely quantify the impact of strikes on CES data. John P. Mullins mullins.john@bls.gov