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PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT, INTEREST MARGIN, AND BANK EFFICIENCY: EMPIRICAL TEST OF MERTON MODEL IN INDONESIAN BANKING
Author(s) -
Buddi Wibowo
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
jurnal aplikasi manajemen
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2302-6332
pISSN - 1693-5241
DOI - 10.21776/ub.jam.2017.015.02.05
Subject(s) - indonesian , net interest margin , margin (machine learning) , test (biology) , non performing loan , probability of default , econometrics , economics , actuarial science , business , financial system , credit risk , computer science , finance , loan , linguistics , philosophy , profitability index , biology , return on assets , paleontology , machine learning
Measurement of bank failure risk is still a challenging research problem. This study is aimed to measure the Indonesia banks probability of bankruptcywith Model Merton which has the better predictive power and is based on a far stronger financial theoretical frameworkcompared to the popular bankruptcy prediction model which is categorized by Sundaresan (2013) as a theoretical model such as Altman Z-score model and Ohlson 0 score more popular. The study also examine the relationship of bank efficiency and market power with its probability of default. The test results demonstrate that bank efficiency significantly affects the dynamics of bank’s default risk.

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