Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism

Acknowledgements Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) would like to acknowledge the leadership and expertise of the Department of Homeland Security These individuals made themselves available for assistance and direction on all aspects of the project discussed in this final report. The authors gratefully acknowledge the insights and support of the Modeling and Analysis Coordination Working Group, a technical working group collaborating on key aspects of nuclear effects modeling. Participation in this working group included: nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes. Executive Summary Despite hundreds of above-ground nuclear tests and data gathered from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the effects of a ground-level, low-yield nuclear detonation in a modern urban environment are still the subject of considerable scientific debate. Extensive review of nuclear weapon effects studies and discussions with nuclear weapon effects experts from various federal agencies, national laboratories, and technical organizations have identified key issues and bounded some of the unknowns required to support response planning for a low-yield, ground-level nuclear detonation in a modern U.S. city. This study, which is focused primarily upon the hazards posed by radioactive fallout, used detailed fallout predictions from the advanced suite of three-dimensional (3-D) meteorology and plume/fallout models developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), including extensive global geographical and real-time meteorological databases to support model calculations. This 3-D modeling system provides detailed simulations that account for complex meteorology and terrain effects. The results of initial modeling and analysis were presented to federal, state, and local working groups to obtain critical, broad-based review and feedback on strategy and messaging. This effort involved a diverse set of communities, The largest potential for reducing casualties A during the post-detonation response phase comes from reducing exposure to fallout radiation. This can be accomplished through early, …