Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical "Chemical" Infrastructure

Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security, and way of life. One particular type of CI--that relating to chemicals--constitutes both an important element of our nation's infrastructure and a particularly attractive set of potential targets. This is primarily because of the large quantities of toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) it employs in various operations and because of the essential economic functions it serves. This study attempts to minimize some of the ambiguities that presently impede chemical infrastructure threat assessments by providing new insight into the key motivational factors that affect terrorist organizations propensity to attack chemical facilities. Prepared as a companion piece to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies August 2004 study--''Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure''--it investigates three overarching research questions: (1) why do terrorists choose to attack chemical-related infrastructure over other targets; (2) what specific factors influence their target selection decisions concerning chemical facilities; and (3) which, if any, types of groups are most inclined to attack chemical infrastructure targets? The study involved a multi-pronged research design, which made use of four discrete investigative techniques to answer the above questions as comprehensively as possible. These include: (1) a review of terrorism and threat assessment literature to glean expert consensus regarding terrorist interest in targeting chemical facilities; (2) the preparation of case studies to help identify internal group factors and contextual influences that have played a significant role in leading some terrorist groups to attack chemical facilities; (3) an examination of data from the Critical Infrastructure Terrorist Incident Catalog (CrITIC) to further illuminate the nature of terrorist attacks against chemical facilities to date; and (4) the refinement of the DECIDe--the Determinants Effecting Critical Infrastructure Decisions--analytical framework to make the factors and dynamics identified by the study more ''usable'' in future efforts to assess terrorist intentions to target chemical-related infrastructure