Commercial nuclear fuel from U.S. and Russian surplus defense inventories: Materials, policies, and market effects

Nuclear materials declared by the US and Russian governments as surplus to defense programs are being converted into fuel for commercial nuclear reactors. This report presents the results of an analysis estimating the market effects that would likely result from current plans to commercialize surplus defense inventories. The analysis focuses on two key issues: (1) the extent by which traditional sources of supply, such as production from uranium mines and enrichment plants, would be displaced by the commercialization of surplus defense inventories or, conversely, would be required in the event of disruptions to planned commercialization, and (2) the future price of uranium considering the potential availability of surplus defense inventories. Finally, the report provides an estimate of the savings in uranium procurement costs that could be realized by US nuclear power generating companies with access to competitively priced uranium supplied from surplus defense inventories