Stability of alert survivable forces during reductions

The stability of current and projected strategic forces are discussed within a framework that contains elements of current US and Russian analyses. For current force levels and high alert, stability levels are high, as are the levels of potential strikes, due to the large forces deployed. As force levels drop towards those of current value target sets, the analysis becomes linear, concern shifts from stability to reconstitution, and survivable forces drop out. Adverse marginal costs generally provide disincentives for the reduction of vulnerable weapons, but the exchange of vulnerable for survivable weapons could reduce cost while increasing stability even for aggressive participants. Exchanges between effective vulnerable and survivable missile forces are studied with an aggregated, probabilistic model, which optimizes each sides` first and determines each sides` second strikes and costs by minimizing first strike costs