Irrigation market for solar-thermal parabolic-dish systems

The potential size of the onfarm-pumped irrigation market for solar thermal parabolic dish systems in seven high-insolation states is estimated. The study is restricted to the displacement of three specific fuels: gasoline, diesel and natural gas. A model was developed to estimate the optimal number of parabolic dish modules per farm based on the minimum cost mix of conventional and solar thermal energy required to meet irrigation needs. Results indicate that the near-term market for such systems depends not only on the type of crop and method of irrigation, but also on the optimal utilization of each added module, which in turn depends on the price of conventional fuel, real discount rate, marginal cost of the solar thermal power system, local insolation level and parabolic dish system efficiency. The study concludes that the potential market size for onfarm-pumped irrigation applications ranges from 101,000 modules when a 14% real discount rate is assumed to 220,000 modules when the real discount rate drops to 8%. Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico and Texas account for 98% of the total demand for this application, with the natural gas replacement market accounting for the largest segment (71%) of the total market.