Uncertainty in future global energy use and fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions 1975 to 2075: Appendices A--B

Appendix A contains the Monte Carlo Data Set. The data sheets give the distribution for input variables used in Monte Carlo analysis of the IEA/ORAU Global Energy, CO{sub 2} Model. The data sheets include a discussion of data sources, bibliographic sources, and other considerations used in developing the particular data format and values for distributions. As much detail as possible about how distributions are related to published estimates is given but in most cases it was necessary to make a significant leap from available data to the quantified distribution. The distributions are meant to be roughly accurate and to the degree that uncertainty exists about the form and value of distributions, the authors have tended to opt for wider bounds. Appendix B contains The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO{sub 2} Model, Version A.84 -- Model Improvements. The model was originally developed in 1982 in support of work conducted for the US Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide Research Division in the area of future global fossil fuel related CO emissions research. The uncertainty analysis, documented in this report, made demands on the model that had not previously been made, and in the process of operating the model much was learned about areas in which simplification or elaboration was justified, or in which a different approach was warranted. As a consequence of these criticisms, demands, and learning numerous model modifications were undertaken. Since two versions of the model now exist, version specifications have been adopted. The 1984 version is designated A.84, while the version completed in 1982 is designated B.82. Model changes fall into three categories: those which affect the theoretical structure of the model, those which affect the computational processes of the model, and those which affect only the model by which model inputs are entered