Numerical simulations of Hurricane Bertha using a mesoscale atmospheric model

The Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS) has been used to simulate Hurricane Bertha as it moved toward and onto shore during the period July 10--12, 1996. Using large-scale atmospheric data from 00 UTC, 11 July (Wednesday evening) to initialize the model, a 36-hour simulation was created for a domain centered over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Florida coast near Jacksonville. The simulated onshore impact time of the hurricane was much earlier than observed (due to the use of results from the large-scale model, which predicted early arrival). However, the movement of the hurricane center (eye) as it approached the North Carolina/South Carolina coast as simulated in RAMS was quite good. Observations revealed a northerly storm track off the South Carolina coast as it moved toward land. As it approached landfall, Hurricane Bertha turned to the north-northeast, roughly paralleling the North Carolina coast before moving inland near Wilmington. Large-scale model forecasts were unable to detect this change in advance and predicted landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; RAMS, however, correctly predicted the parallel coastal movement. For future hurricane activity in the southeast, RAMS is being configured to run in an operational model using input from the large-scale pressure data in hopes of providing more information on predicted hurricane movement and landfall location