Open Access[Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of atmospheric photochemistry models. Progress report, September 30, 1995--September 22, 1996]
Publication year - 1996
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Reports
DOI - 10.2172/406208
Subject(s) - ozone , sensitivity (control systems) , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , altitude (triangle) , latitude , photodissociation , ozone layer , meteorology , stratosphere , tropics , atmospheric chemistry , climatology , chemistry , photochemistry , mathematics , geography , geology , ecology , electronic engineering , engineering , geometry , geodesy , biology
The objectives of the research are to evaluate and calculate the sensitivities and uncertainties that exist in model calculations of atmospheric ozone levels as the result of uncertainties associated with the chemical kinetics and photolysis parameterizations used in the mechanisms and codes. Photochemistry and heterogeneous kinetics are to be included. SRI`s approach uses the Chemkin/Senkin codes from Sandia National Laboratories, which are public software incorporating the latest algorithms for the direct, efficient calculation of the sensitivity coefficients. These codes provide full sets of concentration derivatives with respect to individual rare constants, temperatures, and other species concentration. Full zero-dimensional, time-resolved calculations may thus be performed over a matrix of initial conditions (temperature, pressure, concentration and radiation) representative of the range of stratospheric and tropospheric environments. Conditions, parameters, and concentration are initially obtained from two-dimensional model outputs obtained from colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). These results are used mathematically propagate our expert evaluation of the errors associated with individual rate constants to derive uncertainty estimates for the model calculations