Analysis of Errors in a Special Perturbations Satellite Orbit Propagator

We performed an analysis of error densities for the Special Perturbations orbit propagator using data for 29 satellites in orbits of interest to Space Shuttle and International Space Station collision avoidance. We find that the along-track errors predominate. These errors increase monotonically over each 36-hour prediction interval. The predicted positions in the along-track direction progressively either leap ahead of or lag behind the actual positions. Unlike the along-track errors the radial and cross-track errors oscillate about their nearly zero mean values. As the number of observations per fit interval decline the along-track prediction errors, and amplitudes of the radial and cross-track errors, increase