Routine inspection effort required for verification of a nuclear material production cutoff convention

Preliminary estimates of the inspection effort to verify a Nuclear Material Cutoff Convention are presented. The estimates are based on (1) a database of about 650 facilities a total of eight states, i.e., the five nuclear-weapons states and three ``threshold`` states; (2) typical figures for inspection requirements for specific facility types derived from IAEA experience, where applicable; and (3) alternative estimates of inspection effort in cutoff options where full IAEA safeguards are not stipulated. Considerable uncertainty must be attached to the effort estimates. About 50--60% of the effort for each option is attributable to 16 large-scale reprocessing plants assumed to be in operation in the eight states; it is likely that some of these will be shut down by the time the convention enters into force. Another important question involving about one third of the overall effort is whether Euratom inspections in France and the U.K. could obviate the need for full-scale IAEA inspections at these facilities. Finally, the database does not yet contain many small-scale and military-related facilities. The results are therefore not presented as predictions but as the consequences of alternative assumptions. Despite the preliminary nature of the estimates, it is clear that a broad application of NPT-like safeguards to the eight states would require dramatic increases in the IAEA`s safeguards budget. It is also clear that the major component of the increased inspection effort would occur at large reprocessing plants (and associated plutonium facilities). Therefore, significantly bounding the increased effort requires a limitation on the inspection effort in these facility types