Open AccessProbabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report
Author(s) -
Mark P. Little,
C R Muirhead,
L.H.J. Goossens,
B.C.P. Kraan,
Roger Cooke,
F.T. Harper,
Stephen C. Hora
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
osti oai (u.s. department of energy office of scientific and technical information)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Reports
DOI - 10.2172/291008
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , commission , joint (building) , accident (philosophy) , uncertainty analysis , joint probability distribution , probabilistic risk assessment , computer science , european commission , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental science , statistics , engineering , mathematics , business , artificial intelligence , simulation , civil engineering , european union , philosophy , epistemology , finance , economic policy
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models
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