Open AccessUse of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues
Author(s) -
Grant T. Harris,
R. Van Horn
Publication year - 1996
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Reports
DOI - 10.2172/266659
Subject(s) - monte carlo method , probabilistic logic , computer science , risk assessment , point (geometry) , probabilistic risk assessment , risk analysis (engineering) , statistics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , medicine , geometry , computer security
The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL