Nuclear waste shipping container response to severe accident conditions, A brief critique of the modal study

The Modal Study (NUREG/CR-4829) attempts to upgrade the analysis of spent nuclear fuel transportation accidents, and to verify the validity of the present regulatory scheme of cask performance standards as a means to minimize risk. While an improvement over many prior efforts in this area (such as NUREG-0170), it unfortunately fails to create a realistic simulation either of a shipping cask, the severe conditions to which it could be subjected, or the potential damage to the spent fuel cargo during an accident. There are too many deficiencies in its analysis to allow acceptance of its results for the presumed cask design, and many pending changes in new containers, cargoes and shipping patterns will limit applicability of the Modal Study to future shipments. In essence, the Modal Study is a good start, but is too simplistic, incomplete, outdated and open to serious question to be used as the basis for any present-day environmental or risk assessment of spent fuel transportation. It needs to be redone, with peer review during its production and experimental verification of its assumptions, before it has any relevance to the shipments planned to Yucca Mountain. Finally, it must be expanded into a full risk assessment by inputing its radiological release fractions and probabilities into a valid dispersal simulation to properly determine the impact of its results. 51 refs