WTEC Panel Report on International Assessment of Research and Development in Simulation-Based Engineering and Science

This WTEC panel report assesses the international research and development activities in the field of SimulationBased Engineering and Science (SBE&S). SBE&S involves the use of computer modeling and simulation to solve mathematical formulations of physical models of engineered and natural systems. SBE&S today has reached a level of predictive capability that it now firmly complements the traditional pillars of theory and experimentation/observation. As a result, computer simulation is more pervasive today – and having more impact – than at any other time in human history. Many critical technologies, including those to develop new energy sources and to shift the cost-benefit factors in healthcare, are on the horizon that cannot be understood, developed, or utilized without simulation. A panel of experts reviewed and assessed the state of the art in SBE&S as well as levels of activity overseas in the broad thematic areas of life sciences and medicine, materials, and energy and sustainability; and in the crosscutting issues of next generation hardware and algorithms; software development; engineering simulations; validation, verification, and uncertainty quantification; multiscale modeling and simulation; and SBE&S education. The panel hosted a U.S. baseline workshop, conducted a bibliometric analysis, consulted numerous experts and reports, and visited 59 institutions and companies throughout East Asia and Western Europe to explore the active research projects in those institutions, the computational infrastructure used for the projects, the funding schemes that enable the research, the collaborative interactions among universities, national laboratories, and corporate research centers, and workforce needs and development for SBE&S. The panel found that SBE&S activities abroad are strong, and compete with or lead the United States in some strategic areas. Both here and abroad, SBE&S is changing the way disease is treated, the way surgery is performed and patients are rehabilitated, and the way we understand the brain; changing the way materials and components are designed, developed, and used in all industrial sectors; and aiding in the recovery of untapped oil, the discovery and utilization of new energy sources, and the way we design sustainable infrastructures. Dataintensive and data-driven applications were evident in many countries. Achieving millisecond timescales with molecular resolution for proteins and other complex matter is now within reach due to new architectures and algorithms. The fidelity of engineering simulations is being improved through inclusion of physics and chemistry. There is excitement about the opportunities that petascale computers will afford, but concern about the ability to program them. Because fast computers are now so affordable, and several countries are committed to petascale computing and beyond, what will distinguish us from the rest of the world is our ability to do SBE&S better and to exploit new architectures we develop before those architectures become ubiquitous. Inadequate education and training of the next generation of computational scientists and engineers threatens global as well as U.S. growth of SBE&S. A persistent pattern of subcritical funding overall for SBE&S threatens U.S. leadership and continued needed advances, while a surge of strategic investments in SBE&S abroad reflects recognition by those countries of the role of simulation in advancing national competitiveness and its effectiveness as a mechanism for economic stimulus. There are immediate opportunities to strengthen the U.S. capability for SBE&S through strategic investments in industry-driven partnerships with universities and national laboratories; new and sustained mechanisms for supporting R&D in SBE&S; and a new, modern approach to educating and training the next generation of researchers in high performance computing, modeling and simulation for scientific discovery and engineering innovation. Key findings in the three thematic domain areas of the study and in the crosscutting areas and technologies that support SBE&S reinforce these overarching findings in specific ways. WORLD TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION CENTER, INC. (WTEC) R. D. Shelton, President Michael DeHaemer, Executive Vice President Geoffrey M. Holdridge, Vice President for Government Services David Nelson, Vice President for Development V. J. Benokraitis, Assistant Vice President L. Pearson, Project Manager Grant Lewison (Evaluametrics, Ltd.), Advance Conractor, Europe Gerald Hane (Globalvation, Inc.), Advance Contractor, Asia Patricia M.H. Johnson, Director of Publications Patricia Foland, Research Associate Halyna Paikoush, Event Planner and Administrative Support ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We at WTEC wish to extend our gratitude and appreciation to the panelists for their valuable insights and their dedicated work in conducting this international benchmarking study of R&D in simulation-based engineering and science. We wish also to extend our sincere appreciation to the advisory board, the presenters at the U.S. baseline workshop, and to the panel’s site visit hosts for so generously and graciously sharing their time, expertise, and facilities with us. For their sponsorship of this important study, our thanks go to the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and the Department of Defense (DOD). We believe this report provides a valuable overview of ongoing R&D efforts in simulation-based engineering and science that can help scientists and policymakers effectively plan and coordinate future efforts in this important field. R. D. Shelton Copyright 2009 by WTEC. The U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive and nontransferable license to exercise all exclusive rights provided by copyright. This document is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and other agencies of the U.S. Government under an award from NSF (ENG-0739505) to the World Technology Evaluation Center, Inc. The Government has certain rights in this material. Any writings, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Government, the authors’ parent institutions, or WTEC. A selected list of available WTEC reports and information on obtaining them is on the inside back cover of this report.