Probabilistic Simulation of Subsurface Fluid Flow: A Study Using a Numerical Scheme

There has been an increasing interest in probabilistic modeling of hydrogeologic systems. The classical approach to groundwater modeling has been deterministic in nature, where individual layers and formations are assumed to be uniformly homogeneous. Even in the case of complex heterogeneous systems, the heterogeneities describe the differences in parameter values between various layers, but not within any individual layer. In a deterministic model a single-number is assigned to each hydrogeologic parameter, given a particular scale of interest. However, physically there is no such entity as a truly uniform and homogeneous unit. Single-number representations or deterministic predictions are subject to uncertainties. The approach used in this work models such uncertainties with probabilistic parameters. The resulting statistical distributions of output variables are analyzed. A numerical algorithm, based on axiomatic principles of probability theory, performs arithmetic operations between probability distributions. Two subroutines are developed from the algorithm and incorporated into the computer program TERZAGI, which solves groundwater flow problems in saturated, multi-dimensional systems. The probabilistic computer program is given the name, PROGRES. The algorithm has been applied to study the following problems: one-dimensional flow through homogeneous media, steady-state and transient flow conditions, one-dimensional flow through heterogeneous media, steady-state and transient flow conditions, and two-dimensional steady-stte flow through heterogeneous media. The results are compared with those available in the literature