Collaborative Research: Robust Climate Projections and Stochastic Stability of Dynamical Systems

The project was completed along the lines of the original proposal, with additional elements arising as new results were obtained. The originally proposed three thrusts were expanded to include an additional, fourth one. (i) The e#11;ffects of stochastic perturbations on climate models have been examined at the fundamental level by using the theory of deterministic and random dynamical systems, in both #12;nite and in#12;nite dimensions. (ii) The theoretical results have been implemented #12;first on a delay-diff#11;erential equation (DDE) model of the El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. (iii) More detailed, physical aspects of model robustness have been considered, as proposed, within the stripped-down ICTP-AGCM (formerly SPEEDY) climate model. This aspect of the research has been complemented by both observational and intermediate-model aspects of mid-latitude and tropical climate. (iv) An additional thrust of the research relied on new and unexpected results of (i) and involved reduced-modeling strategies and associated prediction aspects have been tested within the team's empirical model reduction (EMR) framework. Finally, more detailed, physical aspects have been considered within the stripped-down SPEEDY climate model. The results of each of these four complementary e#11;fforts are presented in the next four sections, organized by topic and by the team members concentrating on the topic under discussion