Assessment of the safety of US nuclear weapons and related nuclear test requirements: A post-Bush Initiative update

The Nuclear Weapons Reduction Initiative announced by President Bush on September 27, 1991, is described herein as set forth in Defense Secretary Cheney`s Nuclear Arsenal Reduction Order issued September 28, 1991. The implications of the Bush Initiative for improved nuclear weapons safety are assessed in response to a request by US Senators Harkin, Kennedy, and Wirth to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory that the author prepare such an assessment. The author provides an estimate of the number of nuclear tests needed to accomplish a variety of specified warhead safety upgrades, then uses the results of this estimate to answer three questions posed by the Senators. These questions concern pit reuse and the number of nuclear tests needed for specified safety upgrades of those ballistic missiles not scheduled for retirement, namely the Minuteman III, C4, and D5 missiles.