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This research was conducted to produce a public policy model to anticipate floods in Ternate City due to changes in the geo-environmental conditions of the Tugurara River based on geological analysis results. These model intended to help the local government in determining the policy to deal with the Tugurara River disaster threat. Analysis of geo-environmental conditions was conducted using statistical methods obtained from previous studies furthermore, the theory of public policy analysis in determining the appropriate policy for handling the risk that will occur. Results revealed that runoff water correlates with extensive changes of the Tugurara River area. These area change becomes more because of runoff water discharge amount erode the rock on the river wall and cause the river wall as well as the presenting any material river wall along the river as a catastrophic outburst flood lava on a residential area three villages in 2011 (this condition is particular compare than another river in North Maluku or others). Therefore changes Tugurara River area, occurred very significant. The river engineering can refer to the flood prevention model that has been applied to the Jeneberang River in South Sulawesi by building Sabo Dam along the river, adapted to the particular characteristics of the Tugurara River. Therefore, the critical formulation of public policy alternative carried out by the Ternate City government is infrastructure development, community involvement, and networking development. After the public policy is determined, then further research can be conduct on the evaluation and comprehensive analysis of policy implementation.

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS ON DISASTER THREAT DUE TO GEO-ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION OF TUGURARA RIVER IN TERNATE CITY, NORTH MALUKU PROVINCE