An uncertainty-based smart market model for groundwater management

This paper presents a new water market mechanism, which can be used for selecting the best trading policy by incorporating the uncertainties of total annual available water and wholesale price of agricultural products. In this mechanism, water users are asked to submit bid packages via a web-based platform. A bid package represents the real values that a user puts on different quantities of withdrawn groundwater considering its quality. Then, the most reliable water trading policy as well as the price of water are calculated by taking the market endogenous and exogenous uncertainties into account using the regret theory. The results show that by applying the proposed uncertainty-based smart groundwater market mechanisms to the Nough Plain in Iran, the average productivity of water users increases about 18% compared to the status quo condition. Furthermore, based on the outputs of the proposed market model, groundwater is finally distributed to agricultural users almost proportional to their farm's area.