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In order to quantitatively evaluate and analyze regional water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and to describe the micro motion between connection number components, a more applicable evaluation model was sought. Firstly, an evaluation index system and grade standards for a regional WRCC were constructed. Then, a method for determining the connection number was proposed, which considered the micro motion between the connection number components in the system structure. Finally, an evaluation model based on set pair analysis (SPA) and partial connection number (PCN) that used subtraction set pair potential (SPP) to identify vulnerability factors was built, and identification results were compared with the total partial connection number (TPCN). The model was applied to Huaibei City, Anhui Province, China. The results showed that: the WRCC grade value was between 2 and 3 which was poor; the support and regulation subsystem grade value was between 2 and 3, and the pressure subsystem grade value was between 1 and 2. SPP identified that the support force and regulation force subsystem were the vulnerable subsystems. Eight indexes, including water resources per capita, rate of ecological water consumption and density of population, were the main indicators causing the poor WRCC, which were in good agreement with the local measured data. In addition, the SPP and TPCN were compared to further verify rationality of the connection number determination method and reliability of the identification results. The model established in this paper has strong applicability and can also be used for the dynamic evaluation of other resources, including the environment and ecological carrying capacity. The results in this study provide a scientific basis for water resources management and decision-making.

Dynamic evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis and partial connection number