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With the quick development of social economy, the sharp contradiction between supply and demand of urban water resources is becoming much more obvious. Comprehensive assessment of urban water resources carrying capacity is of great significance to urban sustainable development planning. In this study, the urban water resources carrying capacity of Qingdao based on basin unit over 2010–2030 is predicted using analytic hierarchy process and system dynamics method. The results showed that the total water demand of all the nine basins have an upward annual trend from 2017 to 2030, among which the domestic water consumption increase obviously. The urban water resource carrying capacity indexes in all basins over 2017–2030 show a downward annual trend under the current social development model. So it is urgent to improve the water resource carrying capacity of each river basin by means of industrial structure optimization and upgrading and active development of new water sources.

Comprehensive assessment of urban water resources carrying capacity based on basin unit: a case study of Qingdao, China