Evaluation of the effective forecast and decision horizon in optimal hydropower generation considering medium-range precipitation forecasts | Zendy

Wei Xu | Zendy; Yang Xun | Zendy

Open Access

Evaluation of the effective forecast and decision horizon in optimal hydropower generation considering medium-range precipitation forecasts

Author(s) -

Wei Xu,

Yang Xun

Publication year - 2019

Publication title -

water science and technology water supply

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.318

H-Index - 39

eISSN - 1607-0798

pISSN - 1606-9749

DOI - 10.2166/ws.2019.095

Subject(s) - hydropower , reliability (semiconductor) , quantitative precipitation forecast , hydroelectricity , environmental science , precipitation , range (aeronautics) , horizon , time horizon , computer science , meteorology , engineering , power (physics) , mathematical optimization , mathematics , physics , geometry , quantum mechanics , aerospace engineering , electrical engineering

This paper presents a rolling horizon control (RHC) model to evaluate the effective forecast horizon (EFH) of 10-day forecast inflows derived from quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and the effective decision horizon (EDH) for hydropower generation. This paper takes the Huanren hydropower reservoir located in the northeast of China as a case study. Firstly, the 10-day forecast inflows are derived from the QPFs. Then the hydropower generation processes are simulated by the RHC model, and the performances of hydropower generation with different EFHs and EDHs are evaluated, respectively. The results show that: (1) the RHC can adapt to varying conditions by reoptimizing the decisions during the EFH; (2) with the EFH increasing, the hydroelectric reliability increases and the efficiency decreases, while the efficiency and reliability are improved with

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