A Conceptual Model for Cryptosporidium Transport in Watersheds

This paper describes a conceptual model to estimate Cryptosporidium parvum oocyst transport from source to water treatment plant intake. The intent of the model is ultimately to be able to predict oocyst concentrations at an intake to an order-of-magnitude level. The transport and fate mechanisms included are: oocyst detachment from waste or soil, generation of runoff, overland transport, reservoir and in-stream transport, and oocyst die-off. The model is formulated in finite difference form, and deals with both non-point sources from manureapplied areas, and point sources from wastewater treatment plants. An important contribution of this work is the recognition that the settling rates of free and floc- or particle-associated oocysts can be considerably different. This has important implications for their transport. A finite difference scheme was developed for five sections of a hypothetical watershed: a point source, a lake or reservoir (which can be modelled as either a continuous stirred tank reactor or an ideal rectangular setting tank), the section of stream channel from the outlet of the lake or reservoir to the confluence with another stream, a tributary with a non-point source, and the stream section from the confluence to a water treatment plant intake. The stream confluence is handled with a simple mass and flow balance. It would be very expensive to collect the necessary data to test the model. Because an appropriate data set was not available, the model was tested by means of a sensitivity analysis for the hypothetical watershed, using reasonable parameter settings for the base case. The major contribution of the model is in defining the mechanisms involved in oocyst transport within a watershed. It gives important insights into the significance of various factors, provides a basis for data collection, and identifies areas where experimental investigations are required to avoid the need for simplifying assumptions. At its current state of development, the model cannot be used to provide quantitative predictions, but defines a base from which further detailed modelling can be developed to aid in decisionmaking for pathogen control. Using the framework that this model provides, contributions from other sources of Cryptosporidium oocysts such as domestic animals and combined sewage overflows could also be modelled.