Evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province, China

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is an important component of the carrying capacity of regional natural resources. It is a restrictive index indicating whether a region can support the coordinated development of its population, economy, and environment. In order to solve the problem that WRCC varies with the supporting capacity of, load on, and capacity for regulation of the water resources, this study establishes the relationship between WRCC and the level of socio-economic development (carrying level) and then develops a WRCC evaluation model by analyzing the connotations, characteristics and influencing factors of WRCC. The model is applied to calculate the population and economic scales supportable by water resources in Jiangsu Province under different carrying levels. Predictions are made of the effects of varying water consumption quotas and the industrial structure so as to explore methods of regulating and controlling WRCC in the region. The evaluation, prediction, and control results provide an important reference for the rational allocation of water resources in Jiangsu Province so as to further improve the regional WRCC and achieve sustainable development of regional water resources. The regional WRCC evaluation model has strong applicability and good application effects.