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This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply reliability and the variability of rainfall was then investigated using different measures of variability. A strong correlation was found between reservoir reliability and measures representing the distribution of rainfall between the winter and summer seasons, as well as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of annual precipitation, quantifying the variability of rainfall between years. In contrast, mainly the intra-annual CUSUM range and the variance of monthly precipitation influenced the reliability of river-intake schemes. The presence of periodic patterns in rainfall anomalies was found to be more prevalent in West Scotland, where reservoir reliability is on average lower than in the East. In addition, a sensitivity analysis revealed the small influence of evapotranspiration on reservoir reliability in comparison to rainfall variability. This study reveals the measures of variability most affecting the reliability of surface water supplies in Scotland, and could therefore help with their management in the context of future climate change.

The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland