Spatial and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration under climate change: a case study in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

It is essential to understand the changing patterns in reference evapotranspiration (ET) and its relation to climate variables. In this study, meteorological data obtained from the Sanjiang Plain (SJP) between 1959 and 2013 are used to calculate ET via the Penman–Monteith method. This study analyses the spatial and temporal changes of ET and determines which meteorological variables have an impact on this. The Mann–Kendall test, moving t-test, sensitivity analysis and simulated results have been used to conduct these analyses. The results demonstrate: (1) Spatially, there is an increasing trend in the annual ET values in agricultural areas. However, significant decreasing trends ( P < 0.05) can be found in mountainous regions. (2) Temporally, two abrupt changes can be detected in the early 1980s and the late 1990s for the entire SJP, leading to large inter-annual differences. (3) Sensitivity analysis shows that relative humidity (RH) is the most sensitive climate variable and has a negative influence on ET, followed by temperature, sunshine duration and wind speed, all of which exert positive impacts. (4) The simulated result shows that ET is most sensitive to RH. However, significant reductions in wind speed can exert large influences on the ET values.