A New Technique for the Analysis of Extreme Rainfall with Application to Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria

This paper focuses on the use of the principle of maximum entropy as an alternative technique for the parameter estimation of the Extreme Value Type – 1 (EV1) distribution or Gumbel distribution often used for the analysis and forecast of extreme events. A case study is made of storm rainfall analysis for Lagos metropolis using the available rainfall data for Ikeja, Oshodi and Lagos Mainland as obtained from Akanbi (1982). For comparison purposes, the parameters of the EV1 distribution is also obtained using the Maximum Likelihood Method. The later being one of the most reliable techniques and perhaps the most widely used for parameter estimation of the EV1 distribution. This exercise has made it possible to demonstrate in some ways the superiority of the maximum entropy method over existing methods used for statistical simulation of extreme events.