Water balance assessment of an ungauged area in Poyang Lake watershed using a spatially distributed runoff coefficient model

The Poyang Lake ungauged area (PLUA) is an essential hydrology buffer surrounding Poyang Lake. For such a data-scarce area, a novel spatially distributed runoff coefficient model (SDRCM) was developed based on the underlying surface properties using remotely sensed precipitation and reanalysis data after their validation. The runoff simulated by the SDRCM based on both sets of gridded precipitation data were validated in a subbasin where R2 and ENS are larger than 0.87. In addition, a hydrodynamic model was applied to validate the proposed model further by considering the estimated water yield for PLUA that involves boundary inputs, in which the result more closely aligns to the monthly observed discharge. On an annual basis, the PLUA water flow accounted for 12%–19% of the total annual water flow within the watershed, which was approximately equal to the proportion of the area of PLUA in relation to the entire watershed. Finally, the water balance between inflow and outflow of Poyang Lake was investigated, with relative errors observed at the Hukou gauging station all being less than 10% from 1998 to 2009. The proposed model will be helpful in understanding the significance of water yields of such ungauged plain area when evaluating the water balance.