Past, current, and projected landscape configurational effects on streamflow within the Rocky River HUC-8 watershed of the Charlotte metropolitan region

This study examined past, current, and projected landscape configuration (LC) impacts on streamflow within a 3,553 square kilometer (km) Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-8 Rocky River (RR) watershed of the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan region (CMR). Utilizing a monthly model, Thornthwaite Water Balance (TWB) simulations incorporating LC (blended contagion (CON)-adjusted curve numbers (CNs)) derived from two previous (2001, 2006) and one current (2011) US scale land cover/land use (LC/LU) time snapshots outperformed a blended original (ORG) CN watershed model during the 15-year (180-month) period from January 1999 to December 2013. Findings were confirmed using evaluations from several statistically based, hydrologic model performance predictors. Five-year comparisons of the 2001 time snapshot with the 2006 time snapshot and 2011 time snapshot indicated the least underestimation/overestimation of measured streamflow occurred during the 2001 time snapshot. This period had the highest measured runoff and points towards LC influences on streamflow simulation being potentially more quantifiable during periods of greater watershed precipitation. Watershed LC/LU and climatic data were also projected to the 2030 time snapshot under five different scenarios. Streamflow was projected to be about 2.6% higher in volume than what was estimated for the current (2011) time snapshot using a blended CON-adjusted TWB model.