Analysis and prediction of hydrological series based on generalized precedents

The paper presents a new approach to the use of the apparatus of generalized precedents in the problems of analysis and prediction of hydrological series. Generalized precedents are computational tools that yield to use various a priori, directly observed or preferred for some or another reason local regularities in the data on a unified basis. The main stages of the scheme for applying generalized precedents are presented, and a close relationship is shown with the Hough transform scheme. The possibilities of comparison and joint analysis of meteorological data and actual data on the volume of river flow are investigated. In this case, the generalized precedents are typical nonlinear relationships between certain hydrological parameters. The goal is to identify the differentiation of the regions of the river basin by their accumulating capabilities. We show how this can be done on the basis of an analysis of timelimited contemporary statistics. Obtained flow characteristics in the regions can be further used for short-term forecasting of river level variations and other hydrological processes and phenomena, including flood and drought situations. These characteristics can also serve as an important factor in the study of ecosystems, geology of the region and other similar purposes.