Are Stock Prices Too Volatile to be Justified by the Dividend Discount Model?

This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter (1981) and of Schiller (1981). The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock (1982). Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.