Updating Preferences with Multiple Priors
Author(s) -
Eran Hanany,
Peter Klibanoff
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
ssrn electronic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1556-5068
DOI - 10.2139/ssrn.899006
Subject(s) - prior probability , econometrics , computer science , mathematics , bayesian probability , statistics , artificial intelligence
We propose and axiomatically characterize dynamically consistent update rules for decision making under ambiguity. These rules apply to the preferences with multiple priors of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), and are thefirst, for any model of preferences over acts, to be able to reconcile typical behavior in the face of ambi- guity (as exemplified by Ellsberg's paradox) with dynamic consistency for all non- null events. Updating takes the form of applying Bayes' rule to subsets of the set of priors, where the specific subset depends on the preferences, the condition- ing event, and the choice problem (i.e., a feasible set of acts together with an act chosen from that set).
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