Tipping the Balance in Southeast Asia? Thailand, the United States and China

This is a study of Thailand based on a survey of 1800 mainly military Thai officials. It shows China’s influence has caught up and eclipsed that of the United States, with the tendency amplified by the Trump presidency and the perception of US political interference. The Thai military still places great store on the United States for security but for the present it is non-traditional security threats that are most keenly felt.

Thai historical memory omits US protection and largesse during the Cold War and downplays hostile Sino-Thai relations when China actively supported armed insurgents of the Communist Party of Thailand. Thailand has a tradition of great power balancing, so Thai-China military ties have understandably been growing, but Thailand also retains a strong preference for English language usage and American military doctrine and procedures. In addition, ASEAN is valued, being seen as a proto-great power, pivotal for Thailand’s prosperity and security.