Does Intra-Regional Trade Matter in Regional Stock Markets?: New Evidence from Asia-Pacific Region

We provide new evidence on the relationship between bilateral trade and stock market performance over Asia-Pacific region. Using three regional blocs in Asia-Pacific region – the Far Eastern bloc, the Chinese bloc, and the Australian bloc, we examine two main questions: whether trade linkages between countries affect stock returns of trading partners and whether stock markets of trading partners are interdependent. By incorporating two distinct dynamic properties of regime shifting and cointegration in intra-regional trade and stock market index, we employ a newly suggested multi-variable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model (STAR-VECM). A series of STAR-based tests reveals the evidence that bilateral trade significantly Granger-causes stock returns in Asia-Pacific region with the effect varying over regime changes. Among three blocs, Far Eastern bloc displays the most pronounced complementary relationship between trade growth and stock returns compared to other blocs. We also find evidence of stock market synchronization within each region.