Sow the Wind, Reap the Whirlwind? Mobilization Cascades in Direct Democratic Initiatives.

In this study, I investigate patterns of mobilization in one type of direct democratic procedure, popular initiatives. The goal of this study is to analyze whether a popular initiative exhibits a mobilizing effect on another popular initiative, when the latter initiative is concerned with the same policy issue and is making more far-reaching demands. I analyze three such initiative pairs from Switzerland that came to a vote in 2012, 2013 and 2014, with data on the municipal and cantonal (state) level. The results of a comparison of simple linear and multilevel models suggest that a mobilization effect in terms of turnout and outcome might exist, but it is a weak effect. Normative concerns, however, remain: If voters’ preferences are affected by the mere fact of being exposed to policy options, then direct democratic procedures are not just moments of preference expression, but also of preference generation.