Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility Over the Business Cycle

We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level risk over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand shocks at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the observed countercyclity of firm-level risk. Using a panel of US firms we show that, consistent with our theoretical model, measures of market reach are procyclical, and the countercyclicality of firm-level risk is driven by those firms that adjust their market exposure, which are larger than those that do not. (JEL D21, D22, E23, E32, L25)