Evolving Trade Patterns in the CIS: The Role of Manufacturing

The paper analyzes the trade flows of the CIS countries with an emphasis on manufactured goods. An abstract in Russian is also provided. Manufactured exports were particularly hard hit by the breakup of the Soviet Union and the CMEA. The study examines trends in the volume of this trade and its geographical and commodity distribution. The CIS countries currently under-rely on the other CIS for their imports of manufactures but over-rely on them as a destination for their exports. CIS exports of manufactures are concentrated primarily of products in SITC 6 produced with medium or low-skilled labor and technology. Nevertheless they export manufacures that are typically exported by countries much richer than themselves although the prices they recieve are much lower. The level of intra-industry trade, as well as marginal intra-industry, of these countries is remarkably low. Generally each of the CIS exports a different set of goods so there is limited competition between them. The study also describes the current trade policy issues facing the region concerning their preferential trading arrangements and WTO accession. The longer-run prospects for manufacturing and policy options for promoting this sector are explored.