Technology Transfers and Industry Closures

There has been a shift of manufacturing industries from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to emerging countries. In a competitive global economy increases in productivity in any country are generally welfare-enhancing. The established industrialized countries can suffer from the collapse of some industries, and from the associated increase in unemployment. We model this process and analyze the interactions between various rigidities that cause it, such as the minimum viable scale of an industry or the number of workers who lack the necessary skills to change jobs. When, under free trade, the technology transfer causes the manufacturing industry to collapse in the home country, it experiences a discrete drop in welfare and the price of the manufactured good rises sharply. Further transfers may reverse these results. The optimal level of protection is the minimum size required to operate. Conditions that make supporting an ailing industry worthwhile can be interpreted in several ways but the conclusion is inescapable: technology transfers fundamentally affect arguments for industry protection at home.