Maximizing the Value of Science: No News Can Be Good News

When scientists choose research projects with the highest expected value an externality can appear; slight variations on existing work will be selected in preference to new lines of research that would ultimately generate more value. New research enjoys two advantages: it is riskier and hence more likely to lead to high-value spin-o¤ projects and it can generate more spin-o¤ projects. Less communication among scientists can mitigate the externality, as can the presence of scientists who are risk-takers and secretive. When scientists maximize citations rather than expected value, the externality can but need not be alleviated. JEL codes: D62, D83, H41, Z19