Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach

: The long-term goals are: 1- Show from observations whether the dynamics of the multi-year pack ice has a key influence on the location of the following summer MIZ. 2- Determine the source regions of summer sea ice in coastal zones using a back trajectory model forced with satellite-derived sea-ice drift (Maslanik et al. 1995, Emery et al. 1997, Meier et al. 2000, Tschudi et al. 2010) 3- Assess whether the source region of sea ice melting in peripheral seas in the GCMs participating in IPCC AR5 agree with observed source region patterns from the satellite-derived dataset. 4- Compare Lagrangian ice trajectories in the model with satellite datasets. 5- Repeat this comparative analysis for three critical climate horizons: a base period with a dominant perennial sea ice cover and two projection periods in the 21st Century (2040-2060 and 2080- 2080).