Relations between Select21 Predictor Measures and First-Term Attrition

: This report is based on a research effort concerned with Soldier accession and job classification and New Predictors for Selecting and Assigning Future Force Soldiers (Select21). The goal of Select21 is to ensure the Army acquires Soldiers with the knowledge, skills, and attributes (KSAs) needed for performing the type of tasks envisioned in a transformed Army. The objectives of the project are to (a) identify Future Force job demands and pre-enlistment KSAs required to meet them, (b) develop measures of job performance and critical KSAs, and (c) validate the experimental predictor measures against valued criteria. This report summarizes attrition-related findings for Soldiers who participated in three Select21 reception battalion data collections: the pilot test (September-November 2003), faking research (January-February 2004), and field test (August-September 2004). The report provides estimates of the criterion-related validity of early estimates for preconcurrent validation versions of the Select21 predictor measures for predicting first-term attrition. As such, the results provided in this report speak to the potential of the measures for selecting future Soldiers who are likely to complete their service obligations.