Econometric Estimates of Army Retention: Zones A, B, C, D and Retirement-Eligible, 1990-2004

: Efficient allocation of reenlistment bonuses requires the ability to estimate the effect that the bonus will have on reenlistments in an occupational specialty. Previous research, conducted in developing the SRB Management System, estimated the effects of SRB on Zone A, B and C reenlistment decisions made between FY1990 and FY2OOO. In this analysis, we extend the years analyzed to include FY2001 through FY2004. The additional years of data include Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). We tested the ability of the existing model to predict reenlistment decision-making post-FY2OOO. To improve fit, we generated new econometric estimates by MOS, CMF and Zone using the more recent years of data, and conducted out-of-sample prediction testing to confirm the validity of the updated model.